At times, we as human beings have the unfortunate habit of making life more difficult than necessary.  

The various technological advancements made around the planet may have presented us with intriguing, time-saving opportunities such as the ability to order booze and cigarettes to our front doorsteps (an app we have here in San Francisco that I'm still not sure how to feel about), but we still require 45 minutes of precious time in order to herd 100 people onto an airplane and into their respective seats. Seriously, have you ever noticed how long it takes humanity to both embark and debark an aircraft? 

Stand up, grab your bag, walk 50 feet. That process shouldn't take 10 minutes for each individual passenger.

Life doesn’t always need to be this complicated. And while the abundance of data and other forms of information available to the sportsbooks has made Las Vegas sharper than ever, it has also presented an opportunity for sports bettors to become more sophisticated in the ways of the trade. You don’t always need to unearth a trend that is hitting at 87 percent in order to pick a winner. Sometimes worthwhile data exists within just a few keystrokes, completely free of charge.

John Hollinger currently serves as the Vice President of Basketball Operations for the Memphis Grizzlies, but he used to work as an analyst at ESPN where he created a proprietary NBA metric known as Player Efficiency Rating (PER) that helped lead to his hiring in Memphis. But the impact Hollinger made at the Worldwide Leader was significant enough for ESPN to create an NBA information page known as “Hollinger Team Statistics” that just so happens to include a statistic we have found to be quite useful in our daily pro hoops handicapping this season.

“Pace” is a metric defined as the number of possessions a team uses per game. For example, the Chicago Bulls have a pace metric of 98.9 this season, which means Derrick Rose and company are averaging 98.9 offensive possessions per game during the 2015-2016 season. For some perspective, a pace metric of 98.9 currently ranks 11th in the NBA.

Pace is significant because it’s simple to understand, yet tells a very detailed and important story. The higher the pace, the more possessions a team has. The more possessions a team has, the more opportunities said team has to shoot the basketball and score points. The more points a team scores, the more like the Over hits by the sound of the final buzzer.

Here’s a breakdown of the Top 5 and Bottom 5 NBA teams this season in terms of Pace (as of Thursday afternoon), as well as each team’s overall over/under record, over/under record for the last ten games and money won or lost had you bet every single over (for the top-five teams) or under (for the bottom-five teams) this season, based on a $110 wager to win $100.

TOP 5 NBA TEAMS IN PACE

*Note: Over/under records list the “Over” first, followed by the Under, followed by ties.

Sacramento Kings: 102.4 (1), 31-27-1, 8-2, +$130
Golden State Warriors: 102.2 (2), 35-24, 6-4, +$860
Boston Celtics: 101.4 (3), 31-31, 7-3, -$310
Phoenix Suns: 100.4 (4), 31-28-1, 6-4, +$20
Washington Wizards: 100.3 (5), 31-27-2, 4-6, +$130

Not only are each of the Top 5 NBA teams in terms of Pace at .500 or better when it comes to betting their respective Overs, but with the exception of the Wizards, each club has continued to churn out respectable results over their last 10 games. Of this group, only the Celtics have failed to turn a profit for fans of the Over.

So how do things shake down for the five teams that rank at the bottom of the NBA in terms of Pace? For these teams, are the Unders hitting as frequently as the Overs are hitting for the top-five franchises?

BOTTOM 5 NBA TEAMS IN PACE

*Note: Over/under records list the “Under” first, followed by the Over, followed by ties.

Utah Jazz: 93.4 (30), 33-26-1, 4-6, +$440
Cleveland Cavaliers: 95.2 (29), 31-28, 6-4, +$20
Toronto Raptors: 95.3 (28), 27-31-1, 3-7, -$710
Memphis Grizzlies: 95.4 (t-27), 27-32-1, 4-6, -$820
Miami Heat: 95.4 (t-27), 37-22-1, 5-5, +$1,280

While the results are not nearly as dominant with the Bottom 5 teams and their respective Unders as they are with the Top 5 teams and their respective Overs, it’s still clear that teams with a slower pace are scoring fewer points and cashing more Under tickets almost as frequently as the teams with a faster pace are scoring more points and cashing more Over tickets.

On a micro scale, just look at the Sacramento Kings - the team with the fastest pace - and compare them with the Utah Jazz - the team with the slowest pace. There’s a direct correlation here: teams with more possessions score more points and cash more Overs. Teams with fewer possessions score fewer points and cash more Under tickets.

This is the point in the story where we note that you can never rely solely on just one slice of intel when preparing to place a wager. The goal here is simply to identify helpful pieces of information that, when put together, present an accurate and insightful picture to handicap NBA games. 

Pace is clearly an important tool when handicapping NBA totals. But you’ll also have to analyze the opponent, the schedule and other integral factors in the build-up to your final decision.

That is, assuming you have enough time to devote to such an endeavor after waiting 45 minutes to exit the plane.

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