Succeeding in daily fantasy basketball is all about finding value where others don't - and taking a shot on a player returning from injury is one of the best places to look.
Let's consider the case of New Orleans Pelicans swingman Tyreke Evans, who didn't make his season debut until Dec. 1 after undergoing offseason knee surgery. Evans' salary remained untouched - he was $7,400 on FanDuel to open the season, and $7,400 for his debut - but it dipped after Evans struggled over a three-game stretch following an impressive first game back.
Over the next seven games, Evans - who is easily worth $8,000+ when healthy - put together a sensational run, returning elite tournament value four times and cash-game value once over that stretch. Those who took a chance on Evans returning to peak form were rewarded handsomely, thanks to his salary being suppressed.
Evans unfortunately aggravated his knee injury shortly after and has since been lost for the season, but his brief outburst illustrates the potential daily fantasy players should seek in players who come back after being sidelined.
Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose is another player who saw his salary held down due to injuries - and in Rose's case, the risk of a recurrence. Rose saw his price dip to $5,800 after missing four games in a nine-game stretch; he promptly returned elite value three times and cash-game value three times over the next 12 games before his salary leaped to $7,000.
The window of opportunity wasn't large, but those who took advantage of it landed a high-scoring guard for less than the average cost per roster spot.
The key is to wait until a returning player has a few games under his belt before pouncing; generally, these guys don't come back to a full workload, and the resulting decrease in production lowers their salary to the point where they become great bargains just as playing time and scoring increase.
Here are some injured players to monitor down the stretch:
- Chicago Bulls swingman Jimmy Butler (knee), who still has a high salary ($8,700) but should quickly return the kind of value that had him closer to $9,500 prior to his injury.
- Toronto Raptors swingman DeMarre Carroll (knee), whose $5,300 price tag is nearly $1,000 lower than his season peak; he'll be a terrific option as a potential stat-stuffer available for cheap.
- Los Angeles Clippers power forward Blake Griffin (quad/hand), who was up as high as $10,300 early in the season but returns in late March at a relative bargain price of $9,000.
- Pelicans guard Eric Gordon, who will come back with a $5,000 salary after reaching as high as $6,200 earlier in the season.
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