College football Betting 101: Importance of capping coaching changes

College football season is creeping closer and closer, and with that NCAAF bettors are starting to rev their handicapping engines in preparation for Week 1 and beyond.

In order that will help you focus your energy at the most significant components of faculty football capping this summer, we’ve asked a few of Covers Experts top handicappers to share what they do when preparing for the NCAA pigskin season.

Part II in this Betting 101 series specializes in handicapping teams undergoing coaching changes, whether that be head coaches or coordinators, and the way they are going to comply with new schemes and systems within the early NCAAF schedule:Capping coaching changes

There are 20 teams with new head coaches heading into the 2014 college football season. That number seems pretty tame in comparison to the 31 new coaches who took the sidelines last season. Needless to say, coaches are on a shorter leash than ever relating to producing winning leads to the FBS ranks.

“Coaching changes happen always in College Football,” says Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports. “Sometimes a head coach gets wooed by a larger school, other times it's in hopes of re-energizing a struggling program. Remember to know exactly what the location is in the case of a team with a brand new coach, over or under-reacting to those sorts of scenarios is something that a lot of novice bettors are inclined to do.”

We check out 3 ways through which coaching changes can impact your college football bets within the early stages of the NCAAF season, which programs fall into those categories, and the way you desire to treat those transitions on the subject of making your plays every Saturday.

Head coaching changes

As mentioned above, there are 20 FBS programs wiping the slate clean with a brand new head coach this season. Some schools are hoping these new leaders can return them to glory while others are scrambling to seek out a brand new coach after having theirs poached by a larger program.

One of the highest-profile coaching changes is within the Pac-12, where former Washington head coach Steve Sarkisian was lured away by the sun, surf and surplus of talent at Southern California, where he was an assistant for a few years.

Sarkisian is installing his breakneck offense, which helped Washington rank 13th in total yards (499.3) in 2013, but this time he has USC’s thoroughbred horses running the system, which should produce some huge offensive numbers in Southern Cal. But don’t be surprised if there are some growing pains with Sarkisian’s new system, offering value to head against USC’s big spreads and lofty totals.

While coaching swaps like Sarkisian’s are heavily publicized and monitored by the media – giving bettors excellent insight to each practice and scrimmage this offseason – the lesser-known coaching changes within the smaller conferences are tougher to tangle with.

Craig Bohl is taking up in Wyoming for Dave Christensen, who was fired after going just 27-35 in five seasons for the Cowboys.

It’s a drastic change of pace for Wyoming, which ran the spread under Christensen and is now going with a smash-mouth running style that helped lead Bohl to three-straight FCS national titles at North Dakota State. And the defense is changing over as well, tossing the old 3-4 scheme and going with a 4-3 Tampa-2 playbook.

Smaller programs, like Wyoming, don’t have the recruiting prowess of colleges like USC, so the pickings may also be slim relating to proper personnel to run a brand new system. It is going to take a year and even two before a brand new coach gets his own recruits in place.

New coordinators

Speaking of Wyoming, former head coach Dave Christensen was scooped up by Utah just days after being fired and given the offensive coordinators gig in Salt Lake City.

Christensen is using his spread-option offense to respire life into the Utes offense, which averaged only 396.7 yards per game (77th) in 2013 – by no means enough to get by within the high-scoring Pac-12. He’s worked his magic with quarterbacks at Wyoming and Missouri and is hoping to sharpen 6-foot-7 QB Travis Wilson.

Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham have been with this system for a very long time – started as a defensive position coach in 1994 – so it is going to be interesting to look how wide open he allows Christensen to run the offense this season.

On the defensive side of the ball, Georgia added a countrywide championship-caliber coordinator in former Florida State DC Jeremy Pruitt. He just came off a campaign by which the Seminoles' stop unit limited opponents to 12.1 points per games – tops within the land.

However, that doesn’t mean Pruitt can work that very same magic at UGA. The Bulldogs ranked 10th in scoring defense within the SEC – arguably a more talented conference than the ACC. Pruitt needed to prepare for the likes of Syracuse, Wake Forest and North Carolina State last season, but now takes a step up with some dynamic and deep SEC scoring attacks at the slate.

“I pay extra attention to groups which might be introducing new offensive or defensive schemes,” says Covers Expert Ben Burns. “I look closely at how healthy and experienced teams are along the offensive and defensive lines. Despite the fact that I’m not making any future wagers, I GLANCE at teams Over/Under projections, as it’s helpful in gauging expectations.”

Coaches at the hot seat

While this would possibly not be an official coaching change, there are many guys wearing the headsets so that you can likely be headset-less next fall - in the event that they don’t turn their programs around pronto.

“Coaches that need statement wins to make fans neglect last year: This may be coaches taking on new programs and had disappointing results last year or coaches which can be at the hot seat,” says Covers Experts’ Doc’s Sports.

Heading into the 2014 campaign, Arkansas head coach Bret Bielema is seeking a handy guide a rough turnaround after going 0-8 in SEC play last season. In keeping with Doc’s Sports, bettors should search for the Razorbacks to run up the score versus weaker foes Nicholls State and northerly Illinois in an effort to appease the fanbase.

As for coaches at the hot seat, time is ticking on names like Charlie Weis (Kansas), Will Muschamp (Florida), and Bo Pelini (Nebraska), who've all did not meet the lofty expectations when taking on on the respective schools. Could that fireplace ignite an additional effort within the early going or will these coaches fritter away and be fired by the point winter sets in?

Check out Part I - College football Betting 101: Importance of capping QB changes for more insight into methods to handicap the NCAAF season.

Follow Covers Features Editor Jason Logan on Twitter @CoversJLo.

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