Friday, April 22, 2016

Top Pair on a Dead Board and also you Get Raised -- Shove, Call, or Fold?NO Deposit bonus $43
HomeStrategyPoker Tournaments Top Pair on a Dead Board -- Stack Off, Call, or Fold?
  • You raise pre and flop top pair and continuation bet, however the limp-caller is raising you presently. what?

  • Mo Nuwwarah presents a fascinating poker puzzle from a Mid-States Poker Tour Main Event.

Covering live poker tournaments for a living affords me the chance to peer countless thousands of hands played out, a lot of which give interesting and potentially valuable insights into how players — both amateurs and professionals — play the sport. On this ongoing series, I’ll highlight hands I’ve seen on the tournaments I’ve covered and spot if we will glean anything useful from them.

The Scene

This week, we glance at one final hand from the new Mid-States Poker Tour Meskwaki stop — only not one played by your intrepid author. Rather this hand, also from the $1,100 Main Event, comes from Day 2 and was played by a chum with whom I traveled to the tournament.

Tom Frith began the day with a stack of 215,000, ok to be within the top 10. But he lost a few pots within the early going and was all the way down to about 175,000 at Level 15 (1,500/3,000/500) with the cash bubble looming. On the time of this hand the one read he had on the table was on Josh Lyster, seated two to his right, after Lyster made a giant overbet preflop and showed down aces.

The Action

Action folded to Lyster within the cutoff who limped in, then it folded to Frith who were dealt  K-Hearts  Q-Diamonds within the small blind. Frith popped to 9,500, and after the large blind folded Lyster called the raise.

The flop came  7-Spades  3-Diamonds  k-Clubs , and Frith fired out a continuation bet of 12,000, which Lyster raised to 40,000. Frith responded by pushing all of his chips forward, and Lyster called. Frith showed his top pair of kings, then saw he was behind when Lyster turned over  7-Diamonds  3-Clubs .

The dealer then delivered the  9-Diamonds after which the  2-Clubs from the deck, making Lyster’s two pair best and sending all of Frith’s chips to his opponent.

Concept and Analysis

This hand may be very strange throughout as you don’t often see a 115-big blind pot played between hands like these at this point in a tournament, never mind when approaching the cash bubble.

First off, Lyster’s limp with  7-Diamonds  3-Clubs looks optimistic at best. If you’re dead set on playing seven-three offsuit within the cutoff, your best chance to show a profit is solely to boost the pot and try to steal the blinds. As played, he limps and calls a raise with a hand that’s usually going to be very tough to play postflop.

Top Pair on a Dead Board and You Get Raised -- Shove, Call, or Fold? 101Tom Frith

Luckily for Lyster, he does nail the dream flop hitting bottom two with Frith making top pair. Frith leads out with a normal continuation bet and is faced with a large raise.

It’s an overly tough decision for Frith at this point. At the one hand, his opponent is saying he has a large hand. But what big hands could he have? There’s little or no that a player must be limping with within the cutoff that beats king-queen here, especially when Lyster isn't more likely to have limped a large holding preflop — remember, he had played aces very aggressively already.

Lyster can have limped a small pair and flopped a set, but sets aren’t easy to flop. For those who just give your opponent credit for nut hands whenever you’re in these spots, you’re going to get run over. At the other hand, playing a pot this large with one pair at this point within the tournament is much from ideal.

A better choice than simply shoving here would likely be to easily call and spot if you happen to can get to any extent further information at the turn. Yet one more card and another try to gain some type of read at the opponent could help clarify the location. Plus, jamming chases away any weak or speculative holdings Lyster might have, possibly letting him off the hook if he has a weaker king.

One thing this hand definitely illustrates is the trouble in reading hands against small-stakes players. They are going to often play hands in manners that don’t make much sense to players thinking in conventional ways. Frith never saw the  7-Diamonds  3-Clubs coming, and it’s not hard to peer why.

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