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Nailing your pitcher selection on an evening to nighttime basis is a large portion of being a competitive or successful MLB DFS player. For this reason, understanding what to seem for when deciding between pitchers is paramount. Early within the season, you should have some pitchers who've been shockingly good and others who've been shockingly bad in comparison to preseason expectations. Today I’m going to be taking a look at a pair different pitchers who happen to be pitching Wednesday night and go over what underlying statistics I’m taking a look at for every to assist me decide how I BELIEVE about them going forward.

Player A THREE: starts, 0-3 record, 5.87 ERA, 5 HR allowed, 23 strikeouts, 8 walks

Player B: 3 starts, 0-2 record, 6.75 ERA, 3 HR allowed, 15 strikeouts, 5 walks

At a cursory glance, using these archaic measures for pitcher performance, these two players seem to have struggled about equally. Either one of them were top flight pitchers getting into the season, the aces in their respective staffs. Obviously, neither has gotten off to the beginning they want or that any one would have expected. A COUPLE OF questions arise listed below are. they much different within the underlying stats? Which of the 2 seems perhaps to dance back into form, and which seems like he could struggle greater than expected this year? The answers can only be found by digging somewhat deeper than the outside level stats.

Player A: 13.5 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 2.93 HR/9, .436 BABIP, 2.87 xFIP

Player B: 7.79 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.56 HR/9, .333 BABIP, 4.20 xFIP

Now I DO KNOW if you’re not a baseball stat nerd these numbers may in addition be in Chinese since you could have no idea what they mean. So I’m here to provide an explanation for a little bit. K/9 is naturally strikeouts per 9 innings, with BB/9 and HR/9 then being self explanatory. BABIP is the Batting Average on Balls In Play. Between .270 and .300 is ready average, dependent on the pitcher. xFIP is a stat that was created to take a look at to mirror what a pitcher’s ERA ‘should’ be while looking to negate the lucky or unlucky effects that BABIP and residential run luck play.

With this new information, we will be able to begin to see that player A might be a little bit likely to was really unlucky and is likely to be the pitcher we thought he’d be entering the season. His K/9 is demolishing player B, his HR/9 and BABIP are both otherworldly high and are sure to come down a fair amount. And xFIP, that's aiming to measure his true quality thus far, thinks his ERA must be under 3. So, all else equal, if I were betting on the sort of two guys to be an invaluable pitcher in DFS and even season long fantasy anytime soon, it'd be player A.

As for the massive reveal… player A is Tampa Bay’s Chris Archer and player B is newly acquired Arizona staff ace Zack Greinke. By taking a look at these numbers and the way they compare to their recent career numbers (Archer’s last 2 years BB/9 average out to about 3), Archer is the clear bet to dance back in my view. Greinke must really get it going to get anywhere near the shape he showed during the last two seasons with the Dodgers.

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Thanks for reading. Find me on Twitter @IanJ300 with any questions.

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