Tonight’s Game 3 of the NBA first-round playoff series between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets is slightly like that classic song from The Clash.

“Will he play or will he sit?”

That could be reigning league MVP Stephen Curry, who tweaked an ankle within the Warriors’ Game 1 blowout win and cover, then sat out Game 2 Monday night as Golden State narrowly covered the 8.5-point closing line with a 115-106 home victory. Curry’s uncertain status for tonight’s 9:30 Eastern tip has challenged the oddsmakers.

“It’s like a guessing game,” said Jason Simbal, vice chairman of risk management for CG Technology, which operates Las Vegas sportsbooks on the Cosmopolitan, the M and the Venetian, among others. “We opened [Warriors] -5.5, then went to 6, which might lead you to believe people think Curry might play, or that they’ll cover without him.

“But then, when it went to 6, all of them bet the Rockets. Now it’s back to 5.5.”

Greg Sindall, senior oddsmaker for SportsInteraction.com, saw similar movement.

“We opened the sport with the soldiers as 5.5-point favorites,” Sindall told Covers. “The public jumped on that right away, and we pushed it out to six. Some sharp money came in on Houston +6, so we’ve now brought it back to 5.5. There's still no confirmation on Curry’s status for tonight, so we’re watching very closely.”

An oddsmaker for BetNow said his shop also currently has dropped Golden State to -5, after opening at 5.5.

“The line may not change that much if the soldiers announce that Curry isn't playing,” the oddsmaker said. “But if he does play tonight, the road might see a drastic change. So far, the action have been all in favor of the Warriors.”

Simbal said that’s the case at his shops, a minimum of with the general public bettors.

“The public is gonna bet Golden State for sure,” he said. “The sharps will wait to look if the number goes up again. They’re not gonna take 5.5.”

In another first-round contest tonight, CG books have Oklahoma City as 8.5-point chalk at Dallas for Game 3 of a chain that’s surprisingly knotted at a game apiece. The Thunder stumbled to an 85-84 loss giving 14 points at home in Game 2.

“What’s interesting is that bettors are laying the 8.5 with Oklahoma City, but then taking the Mavericks at +340 at the money line,” Simbal said. “So we’re gonna should be in a place where Oklahoma City wins by 1 to 7 points.”

Said BetNow’s oddsmaker: “Game 2 was an actual surprise, as numerous action was riding on Oklahoma City. For Game 3, the action has leveled, but it’s still more for the Thunder. The road has shifted from -8 to -9.5 and it could stay that way.”

SportsInteraction also has the Thunder at -9, though Sindall thinks it will go higher still.

“The line bounced around a bit of after opening, and we settled on Oklahoma City -8.5 for a while,” he said. “But the general public started backing them steadily. We’ve brought the road back to -9, with 61 percent of the handle at the Thunder. I WOULDN'T be surprised to peer it exit further before tipoff. Kevin Durant isn’t going to overlook 26 shots again!”

Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers Vegas.

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