Thursday, August 4, 2016

Betting the NBA Draft: Five favorite prop picksNO Deposit bonus $43
Here’s what we all know for certain heading into the 2016 NBA Draft:

It occurs Thursday, June 23 at approximately 8:00pm eastern in Brooklyn.

Here’s what we all know for just about certain heading into the 2016 NBA Draft:

LSU power forward Ben Simmons can be selected first overall by the Philadelphia 76ers and Duke forward Brandon Ingram will hear his name called with the second one overall selection by the la Lakers.

Here’s what we should always consider as most likely heading into the 2016 NBA Draft:

Picks No. 3 through No. 8 will feature a mixture of the next names: Kris Dunn (PG, Providence), Marquese Chriss (PF, Washington), Dragan Bender (PF, Israel), Jamal Murray (SG, Kentucky), Buddy Hield (SG, Oklahoma) and Jaylen Brown (SG, California).

Got all that? Good. Now let’s get right down to the business of identifying some winning proposition bets.PROP: Who gets picked first: Jaylen Brown or Dragan Bender?

Brown: -130Bender: +100Where to bet it: BetOnline.ag

Pick: BENDER (+100)

Analysis: This feature highlights the significance of buying the very best price, as Sportsbook.ag is offering the very same prop, but with Bender listed at -140 and Brown posted at +100.

Bender is a 7-1, 216-pound Croatian power forward who, on the age of 18, spent last season playing for Maccabi Tel Aviv of the Israeli Basketball Super League. Between his elite-level versatility and perfect ball-handling skills, a lot of teams are in play for Bender’s services, including the Celtics at No. 3, Suns at No. 4, Timberwolves at No. 5, Pelicans at No. 6, Nuggets at No. 7, Kings at No. 8 and Raptors at No. 9. With that form of demand existing within the marketplace, it’s tough to pass up on an even-money prop that includes Bender coming off the board before Brown.

As for Jaylen Brown, the 6-7, 223-pound small forward from California is an excellent finisher on the rim, amongst his multitude of extra high-level skills, but he must improve both his ball-handling and jump shot. However, perhaps more importantly, some believe Brown’s unique personality may cause a slide so far as No. 10 to Milwaukee. I FEEL this to be unlikely, but still feel that Bender’s draft night involves a quicker conclusion.

PROP: Total international players selected in Round 1

Over: 13 (-115)Under: 13 (-115)Where to bet it: BetOnline.ag

Pick: UNDER 13 (-115)

Analysis: Expect to listen to the next names called throughout the first round of Thursday night’s draft: Dragan Bender (PF, Israel), Furkan Korkmaz (SG, Turkey), Ante Zizic (C, Croatia), Ivica Zubac (C, Croatia), Timothe Luwawu (SG, France) and Juan Hernangomez (PF, Spain). 

That gives us a complete of six international players within the first round.

Other possibilities include: Thon Maker (C, Australia), Petr Cornelie (PF, France), Zhou Qi (C, China) and Paul Zipser (SF, Germany).

Add those four names to our earlier total and also you now have ten international players landing within the first round.

That gives us a buffer of 3 for a push, and that’s assuming all of the ten aforementioned names avoids a draft day slide into the second one round.

I like those odds.PROP: Draft position of Utah center Jakob Poeltl

Over: 9.5 (-175)Under: 9.5 (+145)Where to bet it: BetOnline.ag

Pick: OVER 9.5 (-175)

Analysis: As mentioned above, we have already got an excellent handle of which players will hear their names called inside the first eight picks of the draft. And in case you paid close attention, I’m sure you spotted that Poeltl’s name was not among that group, because of this to ensure that our over to hit, the Toronto Raptors at pick No. 9 would have to pass at the 7-1, 239-pound rim protector as well.

Toronto’s biggest area of need is on the 4, where likely targets include Kentucky’s Skal Labissiere, Michigan State’s Deyonta Davis and Marquette’s Henry Ellenson. Additionally, don’t be surprised if the Raptors go for Gonzaga’s Domantas Sabonis, a physical prospect with high basketball IQ. 

Don’t feel bad for Poeltl, however, as he’s prone to discover a new basketball home a minimum of a few selections before the lottery picks conclude with the Chicago Bulls at No. 14.

PROP: Who gets picked first: Kris Dunn or Marquese Chriss?

Dunn: -175Chriss: +130Where to bet it: Sportsbook.ag

Pick: DUNN (-175)

Analysis: An elite defender with long arms and tremendous athleticism, Dunn has displayed remarkable improvement during the last two years en path to averaging 16.4 points, 6.2 assists, 5.3 rebounds and 2.5 steals in 33.0 minutes per game for Providence this past season. In addition, the 6-4, 220-pound point guard from New London, Connecticut is widely considered a plug-and-play prospect who can contribute significant production for his new team presently. After Simmons and Ingram fly off the board to the Sixers and Lakers, respectively, don’t be surprised if Dunn lands at No. 3 with Boston, No. 5 with Minnesota or No. 6 with New Orleans.

Chriss is a freakish athlete in his own right, with the rare and highly coveted combination of shooting ability and rim protection on his resume. However the 6-foot-10, 233-pound power forward from Washington continues to be a work-in-progress and desires to be informed how one can avoid the foul trouble that plagued him last season with the Huskies. Chriss’s upside starts at No. 4 with Phoenix and certain ends at No. 7 with Denver.PROP: Draft position of Oklahoma shooting guard Buddy Hield

Over: 5.5 (-175)Under: 5.5 (+145)Where to bet it: BetOnline.ag

Pick: OVER 5.5 (-175)Analysis: The 2016 Naismith College Player of the Year and two-time Big 12 Player of the Year averaged a lights-out 25.0 points and 5.7 rebounds per game for the Sooners last season while pulling down a career-best 45.7 percent of his three-point attempts. But while the athletic and explosive playmaker may lay claim to the title of “Best shooter within the draft,” Hield’s stock has taken somewhat a success in recent weeks considering that evaluators believe he's undersized (6-5, 212-pounds) and one-dimensional. 

As a result, I’m going to play the over here with the mindset that Hield lands in either New Orleans (No. 6) or Sacramento (No. 8).  Perhaps the Timberwolves come into play at No. 5, but Minnesota is likely to target Providence’s Kris Dunn or Kentucky’s Jamal Murray, assuming either player continues to be at the board.



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