The NBA Playoffs open this Saturday, offering up a new set of challenges for basketball bettors to hurdle before a new champion is crowned.
Betting on the postseason with the same tactics and practices used in the regular season can quickly lead to disaster. So, in order to help you successfully navigate the NBA Playoffs, we’ve polled some of Covers Experts’ sharpest basketball handicappers, who give their best tips and strategies for making postseason profits on the hardwood.
Rare upsets
Ever since the NBA went to the best-of-seven format in the first round, early upsets have gone the way of the dinosaur and dollar drink night.
The NBA is such a top-heavy league, especially in the Eastern Conference, with a huge divide between the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds and the rest of the playoff field. Expecting upsets in the opening round may be asking a little too much, and more often than not favorites are covering the spread when they win the game. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen.
“Going back to 2005, there have been 10 teams seeded sixth or lower to win at least one playoff series,” says Covers Expert Bryan Power. “In only one year - 2008 - were there no such teams to advance.”
Last season, No. 6 Brooklyn knocked off No. 3 Toronto in the opening round of the NBA Playoffs.
Zig-Zag Theory
The Zig-Zag Theory is a popular system for wagering the postseason, simply betting on the team that lost the last game. However, this process has fallen off the pace in recent seasons – due to popularity and oddsmakers being wise to the process – and doesn’t really hold much value when it comes to the pointspreads.
“Ignore the Zig-Zag Theory in series where one team is clearly overmatched,” says Covers Expert Sean Murphy. “Often times, bettors will get hung up chasing the underdog and end up getting buried. The Zig-Zag generally only works in matchups that are likely to go the distance.”
However, basketball bettors applying the Zig-Zag Theory to NBA playoff totals are getting great return, especially when going against the Over/Under following an extreme outcome, like a uncharacteristic high-scoring game or a cold shooting night from a powerful offense.
“The oddsmakers often incorrectly adjust totals based on the previous scores in a best-of-seven series and this can lead to value with a Zig-Zag approach to betting Over/Unders,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril, “especially when the true pace or tempo of a game was actually faster or slower than the previous final scores would seem to indicate.”
Books have been known to quickly up or trim a playoff total based on the previous game’s result, opening the window for total bettors to grab the other side with added points in hand. This is especially prominent in the opening round of the playoffs, when books and bettors are getting a feel for the postseason atmosphere.
“We often see totals swing three to four points from one game to the next based on how far the prior game went Over or Under and these can provide some strong betting opportunities,” Covers Expert Matt Fargo says of the Zig-Zag Theory.
Respect regular season, don’t worship it
The postseason is a completely different beast than the regular season, and banking on the results from the past 82 games can leave NBA bettors coming up short.
Even though one opponent dominated the other during the schedule, those results may not translate over to the playoffs were intensity, durability and depth play much bigger roles. There are a lot of factors influencing the regular season results while playoff basketball is much more focused.
“Make sure to take a closer look at the situation of the regular season matchups, looking for the following types of things: Was one team playing the second of back-to-back games, or nearing the end of a long road trip? Was one team playing without a few of its top players?” suggests Covers Expert Ben Burns.
Understanding Over/Unders
Playoff basketball favors the better defensive team, which is why the San Antonio Spurs keep showing up deep into the postseason. The intensity is turned up and the refs tend to allow more physical play to slide.
For those reasons, totals can get a haircut in the opening round when compared to the regular season numbers. However, with some lopsided series in the opening round – especially in the Eastern Conference – bettors may not see the same level of defensive intensity until the second or third round, when the matchups get more competitive.
“The defensive intensity often picks up when the weaker teams are weeded out at the end of the first round, although that might not hold true for the West, which is solid from No. 1 to No. 8,” says Murphy.
Covers Experts’ Doc’s Sports sees a major swing in the total come playoff time, thanks to a high-scoring regular season. They’re expecting some added value with the Under early on in the postseason due to the lack of true defense-based teams, and the explosive offense of those teams that ranked among the NBA’s best stoppers.
“Some of the best defensive teams, like the Spurs and Hawks, had great offenses and these teams would regularly post high team totals on poor defensive teams or just run with similar high-scoring clubs,” says Doc’s Sports. “That should change in the playoffs as the game becomes more half-court and teams lock down on the defensive end.”
Handicapping health
After the grind of the 82-game regular season, almost every team making the postseason cut is dealing with aches and pains – some more than others. Injuries to key players can throw a serious wrench in the postseason plans.
Covers Expert Nick Parsons points to the defending champion San Antonio Spurs as an example. The Spurs have gone to the NBA Finals in two straight seasons, and showed the wear and tear of that this season. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili each missed time with injuries this season and Tim Duncan, while impressive down the stretch, averaged a career-low 13.9 points per game and 9.1 rebounds (third lowest of career).
Some teams that locked in their postseason positioning a while ago have had the luxury of resting key players down the stretch of the NBA schedule, and come into the playoffs much fresher than those who have been battling right up until the final seconds of game No. 82. Weighing a team’s energy level is important to figuring out if they have enough gas left in the tank to compete in the playoff grind.
Editor's note: This story was originally published in 2014. Stats and info have been updated to reflect the 2014-15 NBA season.
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